The realization of the logarithmic nature of rare, but catastrophic events in these systems was coined “black swan events” by Nasim Taleb (think 9/11, bubonic plague epidemic, AIDS, Great Depression, etc). The intensity of these events is related to their logarithmic function.įor example, lets examine earthquake intensity.Īn earthquake that is two times as powerful as average quakes happens only 1/4 of the time. One that is three times as powerful happens only 1/9 of the time, while an event 10 times as strong only occurs 1/100 times. Thus, world-changing events (positive and negative) will happen, but only rarely. There are clues to structures and systems at risk for them. One such factor, I believe is fear.įear and the need for control is an organizing factor in the makeup of many organizations, leaders and countries.Īs any system grows, the disorder or chaos in the system grows. This is seen as a threat to the predictability of outcomes by many leaders and in response they institute a series of rules, processes and procedures to reduce this perceived threat. This top-down architecture makes leaders feel better about controlling the intrinsic chaos of the team or organization and they feel less vulnerable to failure. The problem is that this structure makes the system more likely to fail.

Dej loaf no fear zippy